🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.