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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."